MLB home run props for 5/16: Let's keep the streak going

Triple boom!! That's three straight days with a home run prop winner after Taylor Ward went yard on Wednesday night to cash our +500 ticket. Let's keep the good times rolling with another three-pack of HR bets for Thursday's MLB slate. 

Michael Busch (+560 FanDuel)

Pirates at Cubs, 7:40 p.m. ET

This price is too high. Plain and simple. Michael Busch leads the Chicago Cubs in barrel rate (13.6 percent) and home runs (seven) off right-handed pitching. He's slugging .488 against righties this year, and Jared Jones is a better matchup than you might think. Despite his strong start to the season, the Pittsburgh Pirates rookie is allowing the 13th-highest barrel rate (10.3 percent) among qualified pitchers. He's already surrendered eight home runs this season and three multi-homer games. With the wind blowing out to left-center at Wrigley Field, we like Busch's ability to square up the ball in this matchup. 

J.D. Martinez (+450 FD)

Mets at Phillies, 6:40 p.m. ET

The wind will be blowing in from left-center field at Citizens Bank Park, but we can't resist the opportunity to fade Taijuan Walker with a home run prop. The Philadelphia Phillies starter has already given up four home runs over his first three starts of the season. Let's roll with J.D. Martinez, who's been on fire with two home runs and a .625 slugging percentage over the last week. He's also 7-14 with a double and a homer against Walker in his career. 

Alex Bregman (+450 FD)

Athletics at Astros, 8:10 p.m. ET

Alex Bregman was lost at the plate early in the year, but he's finally starting to turn it on. The Houston Astros slugger is batting .348 and slugging .870 with three home runs over his last six games. He has a good chance to keep it rolling against Oakland Athletics starter Joey Estes, who's surrendered five home runs in three career starts dating back to last season. The wind will also be blowing strongly out to center field at Minute Maid Park.